In 2008 and (likely) 2009 the digital point & shoot compact camera market was disappointing to say the least. DSLR sales, however, grew. Anything that is capable of growing in a ecnomic recession is worth taking note. Its too early to know what the final sales tally will be for the many DSLRs on the market currently but there are some ways to take an early indicator.
Amazon is one of the largest online retailers in America, simply navigate your way to their electronics > Camera section and find the DSLR segment. Sort the results by bestseller and you can find a quick snapshot in time of what DSLR models are selling the most. At the time of this writing, the top 3 DSLR cameras sold on Amazon.com are all Canon models. To be precise they are the Canon XS, XSI and the the Canon TI.
These are all Canon’s entry level cameras featuring APS-C sized sensors. The 10, 12 and 15 megapixel DSLRs are targetted towards new DSLR consumers and budget conscious shoppers. The fact that Canon currently dominates the top spots is interesting but not conclusive. The top positions do change from time to time and there is no indications of total sales so even if you take away the conclusion that Canon’s models are leading the sales market you have no way of knowing by how much.
What you can take away from this brief snapshot is that the top 10 best selling cameras are all entry level cameras consisting almost entirely (with only one exception) of Nikon and Canon cameras. There is not a single Sony, Pentax, or Olympus camera in the top 15. In fact, Olympus has only one model in the top 25. Sony doesn’t even crack the top 25, with its best selling camera, the A350 coming in at #30. Pentax fares a little better, its’ older, but still capable, K20D is at #23 while its newest model, the K7, is currently #28.
Panasonic is probably in the best position outside of Canon and Nikon as far as growth is concerned. They have their Lumix DMC-GF1 Micro 4/3rds camera at position #8 on the bestselling list while their GH1 is at position #24.
Before I start giving my expectations for 2009, let’s take a look at the market share numbers from 2008. This great article found here at Slashgear.com shows that the end of 2008 the DSLR market share distribution was like this:
Now, let’s fastforward to 2009. Here’s my own prediction for the 2009 market share distribution. I’ll go into some details for each manufacturer in a minute but first let me give the summary first:
- Canon
- Nikon
- Sony
- Pentax
- Panasonic
- Olympus
Now let’s take a look at each of these players individually and see what they’ve done thus far in 2009. We’ll start with the defending champ, Canon.
Canon
Canon has been on the top of the hill for a long while. In 2008 Nikon made an extremely strong push to dethrone the champ with the superb D700 full frame camera and their extremely well-selling D90 APS-C body. Canon managed to just barely pull ahead by the narrowest of margins at the end of the year. It was an uncomfortable sign for the market leader and new and better products were needed to prove that Canon was truly a step ahead of the competition. Canon delivered in 2009. Although technically announced and released in 2008 the Canon 5D MKII continued to sell in strong numbers across the country in 2009 and was an arguably better offering to consumers than the Nikon D700 and Sony A900 FF competitors. (Ed: Please note that I said arguably, this could be debated back and forth). Earlier in the year Canon unveiled the Canon T1i which directly challenged the bestselling Nikon D90 and offered a higher resolution of 15 megapixels. Only a few days ago Canon confirmed the 7D, a highly touted APS-C sensor designed for professionals with an unrivaled 18 megapixel APS-C sensor. These are all good signs for Canon. I expect Canon to remain on top of the heap and increase their separation from fierce competitor, Nikon, compared to the 2008 totals.
Nikon
In 2008 Nikon made their push. They had been steadily closing the gap with Canon in terms of product offerings and increasing sales but 2008 was the year that they really stretched out and tried to grab the crown in the DSLR market. They almost succeeded. Their D90 was a runaway success, possibly the best camera of 2008. The D700 was being touted in almost every circle as the perfect affordable full frame camera for semi-pros besting Canon’s own older 5D model. Things were very good for Nikon in 2008. 2009 was poised to continue their success and perhaps be the year they pushed it over the top. Nikon’s offerings in 2009 were solid but not amazing (at least not as of the date of this writing). They released the Nikon D5000 to replace the aging D60 and the D3000 to replace the D40. Both of these cameras were necessary and were targetted at the prime growth market, new DSLR consumers. They appear to be selling very well and the only reason they aren’t probably higher in Amazon’s sales is because right now they are sharing spots with the soon to be phased out D40 and D60 which haven’t been removed officially from Nikon’s lineup yet. Nikon also released the D300S which to many was a bit of a disappointment. It featured most of the same specs as the Nikon D300 only with the added capability of HD video recording. Nikon had the opportunity to push the envelope with this camera but came up a bit short. With Canon’s recent announcement of the 7D, the D300s is going to see its sales challenged by an arguably better offering from Canon (for $100 MSPR less). The D700 continues to sell well although its MSRP is greatly depreciating in terms of actual street prices. The sales of the D90 and the combined sales of the D40/D3000 and D60/D5000 will keep Nikon comfortably in second place but will not be enough to keep up with Canon. Nikon will lose ground on Canon although it may perhaps increase its overall market share. 2010 will be the next year that Nikon gets to make its next push on Canon.
Sony
Sony has been challenging in the DSLR market since they bought Minolta and introduced their own line of DSLRs. In 2008 they carved themselves a small section of the market and pushed Pentax out of 3rd place. Sony is a big, big big corporation and they didn’t get into the DSLR market to be a 3rd wheel. They want to grow their business as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, compared to the competition their product offering has been mostly subpar with Canon and Nikon (and even Pentax) offering more capable models almost across their entire range of cameras. Sony has been forced to take a different approach in 2009 and instead of clinging to their usual philosophy of offering high end, professional quality products, they are becoming known for product diversity and budget prices. With the release of the A850 in 2009 as the lowest MSRP priced full frame camera, Sony is now the “cheapest” FF manufacturer. With their slew of diversely named and targetted APS-C cameras Sony is experimenting with a “give them something of everything” approach. Sony is risking devaluing their brand of quality to establish a sizeable market share. It will be interesting to see if this approach is successful for them. I expect their market share to grow compared to 2008 but they will not be making significant gains on either Canon or Nikon. They will retain however their 3rd place ranking.
Pentax
In 2007 Pentax held the number 3 spot in the DSLR market share. In 2008 Sony came in and pushed them out of 3rd and Pentax dropped to 5th being beaten by both Olympus and Sony. In 2009 Pentax unfortunately did little to revamp their offerings or to significantly expand or, rather, regain their market share. The good news however was that their K20D, a competitive model, continues to sell well. The K7 was released in 2009 and although very capable, its not quite competition killer than Pentax may have needed. Canon’s 7D more than matches most of the K7 capabilities and the Nikon D90 offers a great deal of similar capabilities at a much cheaper street price than the K7. For a company without the brand recognition of a Canon or Nikon (or even Sony), the lack of significant performance advantages hurt sales potential. Another downside with Pentax (this argument applies to Olympus and Panasonic as well) is that they are limiting themselves to only a certain segment of the DSLR market. Their focus on the APS-C sensors only means that their users have no clear upgrade path. Pentax must focus on continually gaining new DSLR consumers because they don’t have enough product offerings to encourage their existing users to upgrade. I’d like to discuss this in more detail but for sake of brevity I must move on. At any rate, I expect Pentax to regain 4th place taking it back from Olympus but possibly they will lose more overall market share.
Panasonic
Panasonic is a newer player in the DSLR market , producing the G1 in 2008 and now the GH1 in 2009. They are focusing solely on the micro 4/3rds standard sensor which essentially puts them in primarily direct competition with Olympus. With the type of resources they have behind them they’ve made some very impressive gains in the market in 2009. The GH1 is selling very well and attracting newer consumers however the GH1 is facing fierce competition in the forms of the Nikon D90 and the Canon 1Ti. However Panasonic and more specifically, the micro 4/3rd system is a different beast altogether and difficult to be compared directly to the APS-C competition. The micro 4/3rd system is focused primarily on wildlife photographers and consumers looking for small and portable systems that offer better performance than a compact point and shoot but not the size and bulk of a larger sensor. Personally, I feel this market segment has been perhaps overestimated by both Olympus and Panasonic. I would have no problem with a product offering in the 4/3 mount along with other bodies in the traditional APS-C or larger sensor sizes. I just don’t believe there is enough middle ground between APS-C and the standard point and shoot compact cameras to significantly grow this market. I see Panasonic making strides in 2009 but believe that they are mostly cannibalizing Olympus’ and compact P&S user’ sales, I don’t see them stealing to many customers of the APS-C sensor camera manufacturers. I think they overtake Olympus as the number 5 spot in DSLR market share but gain little to no ground on the rest of the competition.
Olympus
I believe that Olympus was the big loser in 2009. In my opinion, Panasonic has stolen a sizeable portion of their sales this year and their product offering is not enough to keep pace. Certainly, Olympus range of products is more diverse than Panasonic’s but their features are not as “marketable” as those on the Panasonic GH1. Additionally, many users are realizing the limitations of their micro 4/3rd sensor and are switching to APS-C cameras. Again, the micro 4/3 I believe remains an excellent choice for the nature/wildlife photographer but for that particular type of specialization the market remains small. I think Olympus has lost ground this year to Panasonic, and will probably come in behind Panasonic albeit not by very much.
