Editor’s note: Some of our readers noted the inaccurate statement regarding the original Nikon D700. The Nikon D700 was not released 2 years ago, it was released approximately 1 year ago in July of 2008. We have corrected this article to take that into account. Thanks to our readers for noting the mistake.
Over the past few months camera and lens manufacturer, Nikon has kept a steady stream of announcements regarding new products coming down the pike. Recently they announced a revised version of their famous 70-200mm f/2.8 VR lens to correct the perceived vignetting issue on Full frame cameras. Prior to that they had announced the D3000 and D5000 cameras. Within the last month they announced the D300s, basically a revised D300 with video capabilities and a few other goodies. The growing question among the Nikon faithful is, “Where is the new D700?”
Nikon struck gold when they released the D700, an amazing feat of technical engineering. The D700 won over the masses from the varying camera faithful camps and for the first time put Nikon head and shoulders above the long standing leader Canon. Sure, Canon had cameras that could match the D700 but not even remotely close to the same price range. In short, the D700 was a major coup for Nikon and it gave the camera manufacturer a healthy dose of sales. Of course there were some that complained…there are always some that complain. Several cried foul when the D700 offered essentially everything the flagship Nikon D3 professional camera offered in a smaller body and much smaller price tag (to the tune of $2,000 cheaper). To be honest it was a bit puzzling that Nikon would give so much for so much less. I believe that’s a mistake that Nikon will be careful not to repeat.
So, its been approximately one year since the Nikon D700 took the world by storm and the Full Frame scene has changed considerably. Its time to survey the field and examine closely what Nikon must do in order to remain on top. The number 1 thing on my list is that they must release an Nikon D700x or a Nikon D800 (I’ll leave the naming convention to the marketing gurus). Why? Well let’s go over the reasons:
1. The Canon 5d MK II – Canon for a long time had no offering that could match up to the D700 in any way (price, performance, specs). That all changed in late 2008 when the Canon 5d MK II came on the scene. Boasting a massive 21 megapixels (compared to the D700′s 12MP), the 5D MK II struck the perfect balance between resolution and High ISO performance. The Canon 5D MK II also featured the first full 1080P HD video recording in a DSLR. Regardless of what your personal feelings regarding video in a camera are, the end result is that Canon had a marketing advantage they could use on their camera. The Canon 5D MK II has proven to be a hot item with retailers across the country consistently selling out (www.Adorama.com and www.BHphotovideo.com at the time of this article both list the Canon 5d MK II on back order). Before the Canon 5d MK II came out there was basically two routes a consumer could take to Full Frame. They could either go with the Nikon D700 which boasted amazing high ISO performance (an astounding ISO 6400 and a useable ISO 12,800 for emergencies) or they could take the resolution route in a Sony A900 (24 MP). The Sony suffered horrible ISO performance after ISO 1600 which left the D700 with at least two stop advantage. Then the Canon 5D MK II was released and found the perfect balance between resolution and noise control. At 21 Megapixels the Canon wasn’t quite as much as the Sony’s 24MP but its high iso performance was far and away better than the Sony’s. Although the D700 may have retained a razor sharp edge in high ISO performance over the Canon, the results were virtually a dead heat with the Canon offering an additional 9 megapixels of resolution. The Canon 5D MK II struck the sweet spot between resolution and ISO performance, the D700′s main advantage was in its superior AF mechanism alone.
2. The Nikon D700 - Yes, this is an odd statement, Nikon must release a new model because of the old one? Let me explain this one. The reason Nikon must release a replacement for the Nikon D700 is because of the amazing success of the Nikon D700. It was arguably the best camera they have ever released and it sold incredibly well. You don’t allow one of your best selling items to lapse into obscurity. Like a good car manufacturer, you follow up a good success with another redesigned success with the same name. The Nikon D700 has such a strong reputation that its important to follow up on that success.
3. 12 Megapixels isn’t what it used to be - Don’t throw the popcorn at me yet. I realize as much as anyone that megapixels isn’t everything, but let’s put this in perspective. Now all of the D700′s direct competitors have at least a 50% advantage in resolution (Canon 5d MK II, Sony A900 and Sony’s newly released A850). All of the D700 competitors are within a few hundred dollars (plus or minus) on their street prices. Although the D700′s 12 megapixels are some incredibly beautiful megapixels and will pretty much do any job that needs to be done, from a marketing/sales perspective, 12 megapixels is starting to look a little long in the tooth. The D700′s advantages (AF engine, weather sealing) is a lot harder to quantify to prospective customers than something more generically understood such as resolution. Its time for an upgrade.
Those are the reasons I believe Nikon should and probably will release a new Nikon D700x or D800 or whatever they actually decide to call it, let’s just say “a successor to the D700.” I do believe however that when Nikon releases this successor it won’t be quite the package that the original D700 was. With the D700 Nikon essentially gave away the farm for free. The distinction between the D700 and their flagship D3 was so little it was difficult to justify the cost difference. I don’t think Nikon will do that again. Here’s what I think the new camera will have:
- It will retain its amazing 51 point AF focus system. This is probably one of the D700′s current greatest advantages over the competition, this will remain or perhaps even be enhanced.
- It will have a greatly enhanced resolution, I’m guessing that it will likely have the D3X’s sensor in it if Nikon follows the same path they took with the D3 and the D700.
- It will continue to keep its superior frame rates (around 5fps with a boost to 7fps with optional battery grip, another advantage over the competition).
- It will have HD video recording, I’m assuming probably a full 1080p with some additional options like possibly 24fps)
- It will still feature incredible ISO performance at least up till ISO 6400.
It probably will not have:
- Rigid Weather Sealing – I just don’t believe this is the draw that it is made to be. Only people who truly *need* weather sealing are professionals and the professionals are going to be buying the D3x…or who is Nikon selling those cameras to?
I look fo the successor to the Nikon D700 to be announced/released sometime in probably November of 2009, maybe stretching into early 2010 depending on market conditions.
